Amendment 2's fate will hinge on the one in 10 respondents who say they haven't decided how they'll vote - or are unwilling to tell pollsters.

Mason-Dixon's poll of 625 likely voters on Thursday and Friday showed 55 percent support for Amendment 2, with 35 percent opposed. Constitutional amendments require 60 percent approval for passage, so the proposal will be determined by the 10 percent of respondents who said they hadn't yet made up their mind.

The proposal would constitutionally define marriage as between one man and one woman.

"Looking at it with Election Day days away, I'd rather be us than them," said Derek Newton, campaign manager for Florida Red & Blue, a coalition group opposing the amendment. "The fact that they're still five, six points away from passage is encouraging. Trend has been that neither side is really moving forward."

Amendment 2 has consistently polled below the 60 percent requirement for passage.

The Mason-Dixon poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon in Florida, said similar ballot questions in other states have shown that undecided voters tend to vote in favor of the gay-marriage bans.

"It still has a chance to win approval," Coker said.

Two weeks ago, the Mason-Dixon poll showed 7 percent undecided. The growing undecideds are a result of a nasty campaign, supporters said.

"With the increase in undecided, our opponents have created an environment of increasing hostility and intimidation," said John Stemberger, president of the Florida Family Policy Council and leader of the marriage-amendment effort.

"Who is voting is the issue. An extremely large number of black Americans voting is going to help the issue of marriage," Stemberger said, adding that Christian conservatives drawn to the polls by GOP vice presidential candidate Gov. Sarah Palin will help Amendment 2.

Floridians will decide on five other proposed amendments in voting that concludes Tuesday. None have enough support in Friday's poll to pass.

Only Amendment 8, which would allow local-option sales tax for community colleges, seems doomed.

RZekeFread wrote: 11/4/2008 9:05:46 AM

Stemberger and supporters of Amendment 2 want to amend our constitution with a vague and ambivalently worded Amendment, which they know very well is open to a wide range of interpretation by the courts. I believe their so blinded by their personal bias and prejudice of God's GLBT children. They would us Amendment 2 to further the religious rights agenda to deny and strip domestic partners benefits from gay couples. So, the 300,000 unmarried heterosexual couples, registered as domestic partners, who lose their domestic partners status is "acceptable collateral damage" to them? I find this disingenuous and deceitful for them to deny this could happen, when it happened in Michigan, Kentucky, Ohio, Wisconsin, the list goes on. Let their no doubt that Florida will be next.

Religion should not dictate citizens benefits and rights, and enshrine their beliefs into our states constitution. Aneemdnemnt 2 goes to far. Say no to Amendment 2, stop them before it's to late.

VOTE NO TO AMENDMENT 2

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